Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.
The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.
This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.
Letdown and Mixed Messages
This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.
The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.
This contrasted with the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".
Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.
DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.
There is little sign Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.
A Different Perspective
That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.
In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.
Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.
There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.
Grounds for Scepticism
There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it begins.
However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.
The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.
The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.
But, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.
International Dynamics
Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with certain protection.
President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the top if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.
A Creative Solution
A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.
Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.
This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.
"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."
Remaining Concerns
Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?
Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.