Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.