A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."